Agenting MRP for manufacturing.

TAM top-down

Verified Market Reports puts the US MRP software market at $2.8B in 2024, covering all MRP deployments including ERP-embedded modules. The North America figure ($3.5B to $4.2B across two VMR reports) is set aside in favor of the explicit US-only $2.8B figure. No further narrowing is applied at TAM; the full software market is the ceiling before segmentation filters.

$2.8B US MRP market (2024, VMR) = TAM

TAM bottom-up

330,000 US manufacturing establishments (Census NAICS 31-33); 98% are SMBs per SBA. Applying 68% MRP adoption rate from Precision Reports yields roughly 224,000 active MRP users. Blended average contract value of $12,000 per year (midpoint of $500 to $2,000 per month range from Brahmin Solutions pricing evidence) produces a bottom-up TAM of $2.7B, consistent with the top-down figure.

330,000 establishments x 68% adoption x $12,000/yr = $2.69B

SAM filters

Filter 1: US only, already applied (100%). Filter 2: exclude enterprise SAP/Oracle accounts (73% of revenue locked in; 27% of market is mid-market), leaving $756M. Filter 3: exclude firms without adequate data pipelines; 60 to 70% of SMBs lack clean feeds (ChainOne evidence), so only 30 to 40% are immediately addressable, leaving $227M to $302M. Filter 4: agenting layer captures a share of existing MRP spend, not the full spend; estimated at 35% displacement, yielding $280M midpoint.

$2.8B x 27% mid-market x 35% addressable x 35% agent displacement = $280M

SOM build

Target the digitally mature subset: 30% of 100,000 active mid-market MRP users = 30,000 reachable firms. Year 1: 0.5% share = 150 customers at $20,000 ACV = $3M. Year 2: 1.5% share = 450 customers = $9M. Year 3: 2.3% share = 700 customers = $14M. ACV of $20,000 is anchored to mid-market MRP pricing ($500 to $2,000/month) plus modest implementation uplift, well below SAP/Oracle territory.

700 customers x $20,000 ACV = $14M by year 3