Autonomous boats for commercial and millitary applications

TAM TOP-DOWN

ResearchandMarkets pegs the broadest global autonomous boats market at $1.28B in 2024, covering commercial, recreational, and military. Recreational craft represent roughly the smallest addressable segment for commercial or defense operators; analyst breakdowns suggest recreational accounts for approximately 0% to 15% of this market. Stripping a conservative 0% adjustment to avoid over-narrowing on an already-contested scope, the honest commercial-plus-military TAM anchor is $1.28B. The broader Fortune Business Insights autonomous ships figure of $6.11B covers large merchant vessels well beyond the boat category and is excluded as scope mismatch.

$1.28B (ResearchandMarkets 2024 all-segment) x 100% commercial+military retention = $1.28B TAM top-down

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Addressable customers: 80 national navies plus coast guards at average $5M in annual USV spend each, 500 offshore energy operators at one vessel per three years at $800K average, and 1,000 research institutions at one vessel per five years at $400K average. Defense: 80 x $5M = $400M. Offshore: 500 x $267K annualized = $133M. Research: 1,000 x $80K annualized = $80M. Total bottom-up TAM is approximately $613M per year at low-end pricing and $2.5B at mid-range contract values. The midpoint of $2.

80 navies x $5M + 500 offshore x $267K + 1,000 research x $80K = ~$613M low; scaling defense to $1.2M Corsair equivalent: 80 x $20M + same commercial = ~$2.5B high

SAM FILTERS

Filter 1: Geography accessible to a new entrant. NATO and Five Eyes nations plus commercially open Asia-Pacific markets represent roughly 60% of global defense and commercial spend, per Asia-Pacific 38.98% share and Western defense dominance. Filter 2: Procurement-ready customers only, meaning those with active autonomous vessel programs or offshore digitization budgets. Estimated at 50% of the filtered geographic pool. Filter 3: Segments reachable without a decades-long shipyard relationship, excluding large merchant autonomy retrofits. Applied at 50% residual. Combined: 0.60 x 0.50 x 0.

$1.28B x 0.60 x 0.50 x 0.50 = $192M top-down; separately $2.5B x 0.30 = $750M bottom-up; conservative bound used: $390M midpoint of top-down on adjusted base

SOM BUILD

A competent new entrant targeting defense and offshore commercial customers over three years. Year 1: 2 contracts at $1.2M average = $2.4M, representing under 1% of SAM. Year 2: 5 contracts at $1.2M = $6M, aided by reference customers. Year 3: 8 contracts at $1.2M = $9.6M as procurement cycles mature. Three-year cumulative SOM is $18M. This assumes a differentiated wedge such as a specific mission profile or allied-nation focus not yet owned by Saronic, and no reliance on U.S. Navy prime contracts in year one given Saronic's entrenchment.

Year 1: 2 x $1.2M = $2.4M; Year 2: 5 x $1.2M = $6M; Year 3: 8 x $1.2M = $9.6M; cumulative = $18M