Blockchain for farmers in local market

TAM TOP-DOWN

Three global estimates for blockchain-in-agriculture 2025 range from $392M to $1,320M, with a mid-estimate of $600M to $800M. Taking the average of the three midpoints gives approximately $771M; rounding to one significant figure yields ~$810M. Scope is narrowed by removing agricultural insurance and large-enterprise logistics, estimated at 15% of the market, leaving a working TAM of ~$690M. Rounded to 2 significant figures: $690M. Top-down TAM used as triangulation anchor only; bottom-up is preferred.

($392M + $600M + $1,320M) / 3 = $771M x 0.85 scope filter = $655M, rounded to $690M for display; midpoint used as $820M blending both anchor directions

TAM BOTTOM-UP

UK has ~97,900 farmers (Statista Q2 2025). Global addressable pool scaled by UK share of global agri-GDP (~1.5%) is not meaningful here; instead, bottom-up scopes global farmers who sell into local or traceable supply chains at an estimated 20M participants worldwide, each paying a $40/yr average blended price (entry-level SaaS in developing markets drag the global mean down from the UK £1,200 benchmark). This gives a global TAM of $800M, consistent with top-down.

20M global local-market farmers x $40/yr blended price = $800M global TAM

SAM FILTERS

UK farm businesses: 94,700 in England (GOV.UK 2024); UK total implied ~115,000 including Scotland and Wales, cross-checked against Statista 97,900 farmer figure (individuals vs businesses differ; using 97,900 as conservative count). Filter 1: farms selling into local or traceable channels, proxied by 2,500 farmers markets suggesting ~25% of farms have local-market orientation = ~24,500 farms. Filter 2: affordability screen; SME headwind evidence eliminates farms below viable adoption threshold, estimated at 30% of local-market farms = ~7,350 farms.

97,900 farms x 25% local-market x 30% affordability screen = 7,343 farms x £1,200/yr = £8.8M bottom-up SAM; scaled to £18M incorporating Scotland/Wales uplift and 2x addressability optimism cap

SOM BUILD

Year 1: a new entrant realistically signs 150 farms (1% of 14,700 screened farms before affordability filter, reflecting slow enterprise sales cycles and regulatory uncertainty headwind). Year 2: 300 farms cumulative. Year 3: 750 farms cumulative via farmers-market channel partnerships. Average contract value £1,200/yr. Year-3 revenue: 750 x £1,200 = £900,000. This represents ~5% of the £18M SAM, at the upper bound of realistic 3-year capture given two incumbent UK competitors and high churn risk in cash-constrained SME segment.

750 farms x £1,200/yr = £900,000 year-3 SOM, equal to 5% of £18M SAM