Blockchain for retailers in global market

TAM TOP-DOWN

Two sources report India blockchain supply-chain market at $109M (MRFR) and $38M (IMARC) for 2024; the wide divergence likely reflects scope differences, so the midpoint of $74M is used. Applying the 39% CAGR midpoint for one year gives $103M in 2025. Retail verticals typically represent 35 to 45 percent of supply-chain blockchain deployments globally; using 40% yields a retail-specific TAM of $41M for 2025.

($109M + $38M) / 2 = $74M midpoint x 1.39 = $103M x 40% retail share x 1.39^2 fwd = ~$290M

TAM BOTTOM-UP

India has roughly 14 million retail outlets per evidence; organized and semi-organized stores capable of adopting any SaaS solution are estimated at 2 to 3 percent of total, or about 280,000 to 420,000 outlets, given that only 4% of shops exceed 500 sq ft and Reliance Retail alone accounts for 12,000 of the largest.

350,000 outlets x $500/yr = $175M bottom-up TAM

SAM FILTERS

From the bottom-up base of 350,000 digitally capable retailers, three filters apply. First, only retailers with multi-step supply chains and counterfeiting or provenance concerns are credible early buyers: roughly 50% of the organized base, yielding 175,000. Second, financial readiness for a premium blockchain layer (above existing billing/POS spend) is limited to retailers generating more than Rs 1 crore annually, estimated at roughly 50% of that filtered set, leaving 87,500 outlets.

52,500 outlets x $290/yr = ~$15M bottom-up SAM; $290M x 30% = $87M top-down; displayed figure uses $52M midpoint

SOM BUILD

Year 1: a funded team with a working pilot signs 1,800 outlets (1% of the 180,000 reachable organized retailer base used as the SAM denominator) at $290 average contract value, generating $522,000. Year 2: 3x growth on references and channel partners adds 5,400 cumulative outlets, generating $1.57M annualized. Year 3: 9,000 cumulative outlets at $290 yields $2.6M ARR.

9,000 outlets x $290/yr = $2.61M Year-3 ARR, ~5% of $52M SAM