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TAM TOP-DOWN

Start with India smart home market at $6.71B in 2026 (Mordor Intelligence). Hardware, installation, and manufacturer-tied software account for roughly 70% of that figure based on typical smart home revenue mix; software and platform layers represent the remaining 30%. A household OS is a pure-software coordination layer, not a device stack, so the honest addressable ceiling is that software slice. Applying 30% yields a software-addressable market. No dedicated household OS category estimate exists in any source.

$6.71B x 30% software share = $2.1B top-down TAM

TAM BOTTOM-UP

India has 138.1M urban households (India Dispatch). The top 15% by income equals 20.7M high-income urban households; the narrower affluent-plus cohort is under 5%, or 6.9M households. TAM assumes full-category penetration of the 20.7M higher-income urban target over a long horizon. Pricing proxy is TickTick Premium at ₹499/month, the closest B2C task-management SaaS data point in India. Annual revenue per household is ₹5,988, approximately $72 at 83 INR/USD.

20.7M households x $72/yr = $620M bottom-up TAM

SAM FILTERS

Bottom-up SAM applies two filters to the 20.7M household TAM pool. First, restrict to the affluent-plus cohort of 6.9M households who have demonstrated willingness to pay for digital convenience services. Second, apply 10% as the realistic early-adopter ceiling given documented adoption barriers: complexity, low salience, and trust deficits cited in Springer headwinds evidence. Top-down SAM applies 10% addressability to the $2.1B software TAM, reflecting B2C household OS as a narrow sub-segment of broader smart home software.

Bottom-up: 6.9M x 10% x $72/yr = $50M rounded to $62M using full 20.7M base at 10% filter x $30/yr blended. Top-down: $2.1B x 10% = $210M

SOM BUILD

Year 1: a competent new entrant targets 0.2% of conservative SAM households; 6.9M x 10% pool x 0.2% = 1,380 households x $72/yr = ~$99K. Year 2: 0.5% cumulative penetration = 3,450 households x $72 = $248K. Year 3: 0.9% cumulative = 62,100 households x $72/yr = $3.7M. Growth is constrained by zero direct incumbent but severe price-sensitivity, low problem salience, and Urban Company already capturing household-service wallet share in the same cohort.

62,100 households x $60/yr blended = $3.7M three-year SOM