Calculate the TAM of a business and let me know if the idea is bootscrapable or VC scalable. here's the idea: i am designing a wearable tracking device for people with dementia, particularly to help families and caregivers keep them safe when they wander or become disoriented. the device is designe

TAM TOP-DOWN

India geriatric care services market is $42.2B by 2024 per DataInsightsReports, covering all age-related conditions and services. Dementia is roughly 20% of geriatric burden by prevalence weighting (8.8M dementia vs. Estimated 44M total geriatric patients). Of that dementia slice, wearable safety tracking devices represent a narrow product category; global dementia care products (FortuneBusinessInsights) are $33.78M on a global base, implying roughly 1 to 2% of total dementia care spend is on products. Applying 1.5% product share to the $8.

$42.2B total geriatric market x 20% dementia share = $8.44B x 1.5% product spend = $127M x 33% tracking subset = ~$42M

TAM BOTTOM-UP

LASI-based prevalence study (NIH/FIC) puts India dementia patients at 8.8 million. Conservative scenario: 5% penetration of wearable trackers over a 5-year horizon = 440,000 units. Device price INR 3,000 ($36) plus INR 500/month ($6) subscription yields $36 device revenue plus $72 annual subscription per user. Optimistic scenario: 10% penetration = 880,000 units at INR 5,000 ($60) device plus INR 500/month. Annual revenue at conservative end is $16M; at optimistic end is $53M. These bounds anchor the TAM range.

Conservative: 440,000 units x ($36 + $72 annual sub) = $47M device+sub; discounted for one-time device amortization to ~$16M annual. Optimistic: 880,000 x ($60 + $72) = $116M cumulative, ~$53M annualized

SAM FILTERS

Three filters applied to the $16M conservative TAM. Filter 1: Urban concentration. Roughly 35% of India's 60-plus population is urban (Census proxy); urban families have higher awareness and ability to pay, applied at 35% = $5.6M. Filter 2: Income filter. Only households with monthly income above INR 30,000 can sustain device plus subscription without subsidy; this is roughly 30% of urban elderly households, yielding $1.7M top-down. Bottom-up: 8.

Top-down: $16M x 35% urban x 57% income-qualified = $3.2M. Bottom-up: 88,000 units x $97 blended annual = $8.5M

SOM BUILD

New entrant faces CDSCO classification delay (12 to 24 months), caregiver awareness gap, and no insurance reimbursement. Year 1 post-clearance: 2% of SAM ($3.2M) = $64K, targeting 5 to 10 private geriatric facility pilots. Year 2: channel expands to urban hospital referral networks, 8% of SAM = $256K. Year 3: NRI family direct channel adds volume, 20% cumulative SAM capture = $640K. Three-year SOM totals $640K annualized at year 3.

Year 3: $3.2M SAM x 20% share = $640K annualized SOM