Calculate the TAM of a business and let me know if the idea is bootscrapable or VC scalable. here's the idea: i am designing a wearable tracking device for people with dementia, particularly to help families and caregivers keep them safe when they wander or become disoriented. the device is designe

TAM TOP-DOWN

Verified Market Reports places the dementia GPS tracker market at $1.5B in 2024; DataIntelo estimates $450M; WiseGuy estimates $6.47B. The $6.47B figure appears to include adjacent elderly monitoring hardware well beyond dementia-specific devices. The $1.5B figure from Verified Market Reports is the most scope-consistent with this product and is used as the conservative top-down TAM. The broader Elderly Monitors market at $3.5B is excluded as it overstates the addressable segment.

Conservative analyst estimate for dementia GPS tracker market (2024) = $1.5B

TAM BOTTOM-UP

55 million people globally live with dementia (Straits Research, 2023). The Alzheimer's Association states more than 60% will wander, yielding 33 million individuals with a meaningful safety need. ARPU is modeled at $200 for year one: a $150 device amortized and roughly $50 in net subscription revenue in year one, which is conservative relative to GPS SmartSole at $359 device plus $360 annual service. Full penetration of this cohort produces the ceiling figure.

55M patients x 60% wandering rate = 33M units x $200 ARPU = $6.6B

SAM FILTERS

Three filters applied to the conservative $1.5B TAM. First, geography: North America holds 39.6% market share (Straits Research), and the EU27 dementia population is approximately 9M, together representing roughly 55% of global revenue opportunity, yielding $825M. Second, willingness-to-pay filter: device-plus-subscription products above $100 upfront face adoption barriers per NCBI evidence; roughly 40% of the caregiver market is estimated to have both awareness and budget, yielding $330M top-down SAM. Third, a 55% discount for institutional versus direct-to-consumer channel friction reduces further to $180M.

$1.5B x 55% geography x 40% willingness-to-pay x 55% channel discount = $182M (rounded to $180M); bottom-up: 33M x 55% x 3% x $180 = $534M (rounded to $530M)

SOM BUILD

A competent new entrant with a differentiated dementia-specific wearable targets the conservative SAM of $180M. Year 1: 0.5% share = $900K, roughly 5,000 devices with subscription attach. Year 2: 2% share = $3.6M, scaling via two or three pilot partnerships with memory-care networks. Year 3: 8% share = $14.4M, assuming one reimbursement or insurer arrangement closes. The 8% ceiling reflects five funded incumbents sharing roughly 42.7% of the market, per competitive evidence, leaving meaningful but not easy share available.

Year 3: $180M SAM x 8% capture = $14.4M; implied 78,000 subscribers x $185 blended ARPU = $14.4M