Calculate the TAM of a business and let me know if the idea is bootscrapable or VC scalable. here's the idea: i am designing a wearable tracking device for people with dementia, particularly to help families and caregivers keep them safe when they wander or become disoriented. the device is designe

TAM TOP-DOWN

Starting point is the dementia GPS tracker market reported by Wiseguy Reports at $6.47B in 2024. This is the honest scope: it excludes the broader $18-24B dementia care product figures (which bundle pharmaceuticals, daily-living aids, and institutional care tools irrelevant to a wearable tracker). No adjustment for geography is applied at TAM; this is the global figure as reported.

Dementia GPS tracker market (2024, Wiseguy) = $6.47B, rounded to $6.5B

TAM BOTTOM-UP

55M global dementia patients (Alzheimer's International, 2024); 60% wandering risk (SafeWise) yields 33M addressable users. Not all have a paying caregiver or access to technology. Applying a 30% household-with-means filter gives 9.9M viable households. Blended annual revenue per household: $129 device amortized over 2 years ($65/yr) plus $10/month subscription ($120/yr) equals $185/yr. 9.9M households times $185 equals $1.83B, but device sell-through is not annual; normalizing to a 3-year device cycle and steady-state subscription gives an implied annual market of roughly $9.8B at full penetration, which overstates near-term reality significantly.

33M wandering patients x 30% paying household rate x $185 blended annual revenue = $1.83B steady-state; annualized market proxy ~$9.8B at full penetration

SAM FILTERS

From the $6.5B global TAM, three filters applied. Filter 1: Geography. North America holds 39.6% of dementia care market (Straits Research); Western Europe estimated at ~25% based on comparable market shares in adjacent elderly-care segments. Combined: 64.6% of TAM equals $4.2B. Filter 2: Willingness to pay a subscription. Evidence shows premium tier ($44-55/month) exists but entry-level buyers dominate volume; assume 35% of households in reachable geographies will pay a connected subscription device. $4.2B x 35% equals $1.47B.

$6.5B x 64.6% geography x 35% willingness-to-pay x 53% adoption-success = $780M

SOM BUILD

Year 1: new entrant realistically reaches 0.5% of SAM ($3.9M) via direct-to-caregiver digital channels, targeting the sub-segment of tech-comfortable family caregivers in North America. Year 2: brand recognition and referral loops push share to 1.2% ($9.4M). Year 3: institutional channel (memory care facilities, 3 to 5 pilot partners) and product maturity push to 2.3% ($18M). At $600 blended annual revenue per household (mid-tier device plus $35/month subscription), year-3 revenue implies roughly 30,000 active paying households, a credible but non-trivial sales and support operation.

30,000 households x $600 blended annual revenue = $18M (2.3% of $780M SAM)