Control plan for AI apps to make AI app deterministic enough to run agents on mission critical scenarios with auditable logs

TAM TOP-DOWN

Two anchor markets apply: AI agent observability at $7.1B by 2035 (33.3% CAGR, Astute Analytics) and AI governance at $3.59B by 2033 (36% CAGR, Grand View Research). Discounting both to 2026 base using their published CAGRs gives roughly $940M and $420M respectively, totaling $1.36B in current-year addressable spend. A deterministic control and audit layer realistically captures the portion of those markets requiring runtime enforcement, not just post-hoc reporting. That portion is estimated at 35% of combined spend, given that most current tooling is reactive.

($940M + $420M) x 35% addressable layer x (1.28^3 growth to 2029) = ~$4.8B

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Evidence supports 20,000 to 35,000 large and mid-market enterprises globally with mission-critical AI deployments requiring governance. Enterprise pricing benchmarks from Fiddler, Credo AI, and BigPanda place full-suite annual contracts at $200K to $1M for large enterprises and $50K to $200K for mid-market. Using the midpoint of the org count (27,500) and a blended $150K annual contract for a focused deterministic control product yields a global spend potential. This bottom-up figure is higher than the top-down, reflecting optimistic pricing assumptions; the top-down is used as the stated TAM.

27,500 orgs x $150K blended ACV = $4.1B bottom-up (top-down $4.8B preferred; delta under 2x)

SAM FILTERS

Filter 1: 30% of addressable enterprises have AI agents in production today and face active regulatory scrutiny (EU AI Act, HIPAA, SOX), justified by the Deloitte finding that only 21% have mature governance and 74% plan agentic AI within two years. Filter 2: 50% of those will consider a standalone deterministic control vendor rather than defaulting to Datadog or ServiceNow, given evidence that most incumbents lack runtime enforcement. Filter 3: Pricing anchored at $15K to $50K annually for a mid-market-focused product rather than full-suite enterprise.

$4.8B TAM x 30% in-production filter x 50% open-to-standalone filter = $720M; discounted to $480M at 67% realizable pricing vs. Full benchmark

SOM BUILD

A new entrant in an immature category with heavy incumbent competition should expect year-1 penetration well under 0.5% of SAM. Assuming a direct enterprise sales motion with 6- to 9-month cycles, a realistic year-1 outcome is 30 customers at $40K ACV. Year 2 adds 90 more customers as referenceable case studies emerge in BFSI and healthcare, the sectors representing 39% of AI governance demand. Year 3 reaches 280 customers at $50K average ACV as the product expands to compliance reporting modules. This is 0.

280 customers x $50K ACV = $14M by end of year 3