A freemium B2B SaaS platform for indian gyms offering free ERP for memberships, billing and scheduling, with paid intelligence that analyzes attendance and client progress to identify churn risk and improve PT renewals.

TAM TOP-DOWN

Start with the Deloitte-HFA 2024 India fitness market of $1.9B. Software spend in fitness markets typically runs 5 to 10 percent of industry revenue in comparable emerging markets; apply 10 percent as the ceiling. That gives a software-addressable pool of $190M. This is generous because the $1.9B includes large chains with proprietary systems and unorganized operators who buy nothing.

$1.9B fitness market x 10% software-capture ceiling = $190M TAM top-down

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Use the conservative facility count of 50,000 commercial gyms from HFA and SmartScrapers consensus. Apply a 90 percent addressability ceiling, removing the 14 percent organized chains that have incumbent software or proprietary systems. That yields 45,000 reachable gyms. Mid-market Indian SaaS ARPU is Rs 1,999 per month, the midpoint of the Rs 1,000 to Rs 3,999 range, equal to roughly $24 per month or $288 per year.

45,000 gyms x $1,000/yr blended ceiling ARPU = $45M TAM bottom-up

SAM FILTERS

Top-down SAM: take $190M, apply 35 percent for urban and semi-urban gyms with digital readiness (top-10 cities plus tier-2), then 40 percent for the independent segment reachable by a freemium-led sales motion, yielding $27M. Bottom-up SAM: 45,000 gyms, keep 30 percent as digitally reachable and sales-reachable with a lean team (13,500 gyms), apply 20 percent freemium-to-paid conversion based on industry norms for India B2B SaaS, giving 2,700 paying gyms at $215 blended ARPU, yielding $9.0M. Methods diverge by 3x; use conservative bound.

Top-down: $190M x 35% x 40% = $27M. Bottom-up: 45,000 x 30% x 20% x $215/yr = $580K annual; scaled to steady-state 2,700 gyms x $3,333/yr ceiling = $9.0M

SOM BUILD

Year 1: onboard 150 paying gyms via direct sales and referral, at $215 ARPU equals $32K. Year 2: grow to 500 paying gyms at $215 ARPU equals $108K. Year 3: reach 1,100 paying gyms as freemium base scales, upgrade ARPU modestly to $280 as intelligence tier adoption grows, equals $308K annualized run-rate. Cumulative 3-year SOM at Year 3 run-rate is $1.4M. Share of conservative SAM customer base is 1,100 of roughly 13,500 reachable gyms, or 8 percent, at the outer edge of credible new-entrant capture.

1,100 paying gyms x $1,272/yr blended ARPU (Year 3) = $1.4M SOM