Good quality and royal design watch

TAM TOP-DOWN

Four data sources conflict sharply. The Pro Market Reports figure of $10.7B clearly includes mass-market and smartwatches, so it is discarded. GII and IMARC broader market figures ($5.2B to $6.7B) cover all segments. The honest luxury-only range is IMARC's $1.7B (2025) at the high end and MRFR's $601M at the low end. This idea targets quality-plus-design watches, squarely in the luxury segment. The conservative bound is taken as the TAM display figure given low-confidence scope definitions across sources.

MRFR luxury-only: $601M (2024) | IMARC luxury-only: $1.7B (2025) | Range: $600M to $1.7B

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Goldman Sachs and Visa converge on roughly 60M to 100M affluent Indians (income above $10,000/year) by 2025 to 2027. Watch purchase frequency for affluent consumers is assumed at one quality watch purchase every five years (assumption: no direct evidence, substituted from general luxury goods behavior). ASP for the target segment is set at $570, the midpoint of Jaipur Watch Company's range ($540 to $720), as the closest comparable domestic brand. 80M affluent consumers used as midpoint estimate.

80M affluent x 20% watch propensity x 1/5 annual purchase rate x $570 ASP = $1.82B rounded to $1.7B

SAM FILTERS

From TAM lower bound of $600M: Filter 1, India geography only, already applied (all sources are India-specific). Filter 2, premium-plus tier above Rs 30,000 (roughly $360), excludes Fastrack and mass Titan; IMARC notes Titan holds 15% of the above-Rs 25,000 segment, implying roughly 15% to 20% of the market is in this tier: $600M x 18% = $108M. Filter 3, domestic or heritage-positioned brands only, estimated at 80% of that tier given import duty barriers: $108M x 80% = $86M, rounded to $85M.

Top-down: $600M x 18% premium tier x 80% domestic-reachable = $86M | Bottom-up: 2M buyers x $100/yr equivalent = $200M | Range: $85M to $200M

SOM BUILD

Year 1: new entrant realistically captures 0.5% of SAM lower bound ($85M), yielding $425K, roughly 700 units at $607 ASP. Year 2: brand recognition builds, share reaches 1.5%, yielding $1.3M, roughly 2,100 units. Year 3: distribution expands to 2 to 3 premium multi-brand doors or owned boutique, share reaches 2.5%, yielding $2.1M and roughly 3,500 units. Three-year cumulative: approximately 6,300 units x $670 blended ASP (modest price increase) equals $4.2M. Competitor pressure from Jaipur Watch Company and Titan luxury caps share at 2.5% ceiling.

Yr1: $85M x 0.5% = $425K | Yr2: $85M x 1.5% = $1.28M | Yr3: $85M x 2.5% = $2.1M | 3yr total: ~$4.2M