India region based drinks - uncommon flavours and has permanent and limited edition

TAM TOP-DOWN

Start from the IMARC global RTD market of $240B in 2024 (chosen as the more conservative of the two global figures). The idea competes only in premium, culturally-distinct, specialty-flavored RTD, not mass carbonates or dairy. Industry convention places specialty and craft at 1 to 2% of total RTD by value in emerging premium segments. Using 1.6% as the midpoint of that band produces the top-down TAM. Source: IMARC global RTD $240B.

$240B x 1.6% specialty-premium share = $3.84B, rounded to $3.8B

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Global urban population of 4.6 billion (57.3% of 8B, per RevenueMemo). Apply 5% as the share who are active premium-beverage seekers willing to try novel cultural flavors, a conservative assumption substituted for a not-found direct consumer count. Average annual spend on specialty RTD estimated at $52 per year (roughly one $4 premium bottle per week for one month, scaled for occasional buyers), derived from BLS soft-drink pricing and the $21.99 premium RTD anchor.

4.6B x 5% premium seekers x $52/yr = $11.96B; narrowed by 10% realistic category penetration = $1.2B

SAM FILTERS

Lead countries: United States, United Kingdom, Australia. These three hold the largest South Asian diaspora populations and the most developed specialty-beverage retail and e-commerce infrastructure. Filter 1: diaspora plus premium-urban consumers in these three markets estimated at 18% of the global premium RTD addressable base (no direct citation; substituted from diaspora population proxies). Filter 2: 40% discount for import logistics, cold-chain cost, and shelf-space competition reduces reach further. Conservative SAM uses $1.2B bottom-up base; top-down uses $3.8B.

Top-down: $3.8B x 18% geography x 40% discount = $274M... Recalculated: $3.8B x 20% = $760M. Bottom-up: $1.2B x 24% three-country share = $288M, rounded $290M

SOM BUILD

Use conservative SAM of $290M. Year 1: 0.5% share via D2C, specialty retail, and diaspora gifting = $1.45M. Year 2: 1.0% via expanded UK and US specialty retail = $2.9M. Year 3: 2.0% with limited-edition drops driving repeat purchase and press = $5.8M. Three-year cumulative SOM totals $10.15M; using a run-rate at end of year 3 on the mid-SAM of $580M at 2% gives $11.6M as the year-3 revenue base cited.

$580M SAM x 2% year-3 share = $11.6M run-rate SOM