Menstruation app focused on data privacy, as well as looking towards assisting nonbinary/trans people.

TAM TOP-DOWN

Grand View Research provides a direct India-specific figure of $67.8M for 2025 covering period tracking, fertility, and hormonal health apps. Global estimates range from $1.3B to $2.0B across four sources; India at 3-5% of global implies $39M-$100M, bracketing the $67.8M figure. The India-specific number is used as the lower bound TAM; the bottom-up result serves as the upper bound given source divergence.

Grand View India 2025 = $67.8M, rounded to $68M

TAM BOTTOM-UP

India female population ages 15-49 is not directly sourced; women aged 15-24 are ~19% of total female population per WHO reference. India's total female population is approximately 700M (2025 estimate used as substitute assumption, flagged as not directly evidenced). Reproductive-age women 15-49 estimated at ~49% of female population, yielding ~343M. Apply 67% smartphone penetration rate (evidenced). Apply 2% app adoption rate (conservative for health apps). Apply $33 annual price (India-adjusted from $40 global benchmark at ~80% discount for purchasing power). 343M x 0.67 x 0.02 x $33 = $151M.

343M x 0.67 x 0.02 x $33 = ~$151M

SAM FILTERS

Filter 1: Smartphone-only addressable users already baked into TAM bottom-up. Filter 2: Privacy-conscious segment. India lacks strong historical data-privacy culture for health apps; Maya's data-sharing scandal (Privacy International 2019) created awareness but not mass behaviour change; estimate 15% of users actively seek privacy-first apps. Filter 3: Trans/nonbinary inclusion premium. India's trans population estimated at 4.9M (government data); nonbinary awareness is nascent; this adds marginal users but not a revenue multiplier. Apply 15% privacy filter to $68M lower TAM = $10.

$68M x 0.15 x 0.53 = $5.4M (lower); $151M x 0.15 x 0.53 = $12M (upper)

SOM BUILD

A new entrant in year 1 realistically captures under 2% of SAM given Clue, Flo, and local incumbents. Over three years, with focused community marketing targeting LGBTQ+ networks and privacy-advocacy communities, 10% SAM share is an optimistic but defensible ceiling against the lower SAM bound. At $15 India-adjusted annual price and 36,000 paying users by year 3, revenue is $540K. Path: year 1 ~3,000 users ($45K), year 2 ~12,000 users ($180K), year 3 ~36,000 users ($540K).

36,000 paying users x $15/yr = $540K at year 3