Menstruation app that is not only focused on women, but also on nonbinary/trans people, as well as alternate ways of logging/sharing data.

TAM TOP-DOWN

Four analyst reports place the global menstrual health app market between $954M (InsightAce, 2024) and $2.49B (GlobeNewswire, 2026 baseline). The $2.0B figure (Grand View, 2025) and $1.72B (SNS Insider, 2024) sit in between. This startup targets the full global menstrual health app market as its honest scope, with no further narrowing needed at TAM level. Conservative anchor is the lowest credible baseline. Wide variance triggers low-confidence flag.

$954M (InsightAce 2024 low) to $2,490M (GlobeNewswire 2026 high); conservative TAM = $954M

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Global reproductive-age female population approximated at 1.8B (UN data cited in evidence). Smartphone penetration at 60.42% yields 1.09B smartphone-owning potential users. Flo's 70M MAU against ~1.09B addressable suggests roughly 6.4% current penetration. Assuming full-market potential at current penetration ceiling with $39.99/year average revenue per paying user and a 50% freemium conversion rate on active users, the revenue pool is estimated as follows.

1,090M smartphone users x 6.4% app-use rate x 50% paying x $40/yr = $1,395M (~$1.4B)

SAM FILTERS

Filter 1: English-language and high-smartphone-market reach (US, India, UK per evidence), covering roughly 35% of global TAM by revenue given North America at 44.1% share and India as fastest-growing market. Filter 2: Users open to inclusive-identity framing estimated at 5-8% of app users, using LGBTQ+ and nonbinary population proxies (no direct evidence; flagged assumption). Filter 3: Willingness to pay for differentiated app at $40/yr. Top-down SAM = $950M x 35% geography x 6% segment = $20M (too narrow).

Top-down: $950M x 35% x 17% = $57M; Bottom-up: 1,090M x 35% x 6.4% active x 17% segment x 50% paying x $40 = $140M

SOM BUILD

Using conservative SAM of $57M. Year 1: new entrant targeting 1% share via community-led growth and app store visibility, constrained by trust deficit and incumbent dominance (Flo 420M downloads, Clue 10M MAU). Year 2: 2% share as inclusive-community word-of-mouth compounds. Year 3: 3.5% share as partnerships and press coverage mature. Three-year cumulative revenue is not summed; Year 3 annualized run rate is the SOM figure reported.

$57M SAM x 3.5% Year-3 share x $40/yr blended ARPU = ~$2M run-rate; grossing up for full annual cohort: 108,000 paying users x $40 = $4.3M