Uber for tractors

TAM TOP-DOWN

Grand View Research pegs the global farm equipment rental market at $34.6B in 2025. Tractors represent 38% of that revenue per the same source. Applying that share yields a tractor-specific global rental TAM. The Business Research Company and Strategic Market Research report higher totals ($61B and $53.7B respectively), suggesting the true figure sits in a wide range; the Grand View figure is used as the conservative anchor.

$34.6B x 38% tractors share = $13.1B, rounded to $13B

TAM BOTTOM-UP

FAO counts 475M farms under 2 hectares globally as the primary rental target. Assuming 1% achieve any digitally-brokered tractor rental in a given year (conservative given low rural digital literacy), that is 4.75M active bookings. Average revenue to a platform per booking is estimated at $10, derived from Hello Tractor's model priced at one-tenth of traditional rates against a $300/day Western benchmark, implying roughly $30/day local rate with a one-third platform take. Ten bookings per active farm per season is generous; five is more realistic, so five is used.

475M farms x 1% digital penetration x 5 bookings/yr x $10 platform revenue = $237.5M, rounded to $240M; at 2% penetration $480M, midpoint ~$360M, displayed range lower bound $240M, upper $480M; conservative anchor $240M used for divergence check against $13B top-down

SAM FILTERS

From the $13B top-down TAM, three sequential filters are applied. Filter 1: Asia-Pacific plus Brazil account for roughly 50% of global farm equipment rental revenue per regional breakdown evidence, reducing to $6.5B. Filter 2: smallholder-dominated markets where platform rental is viable (India at 86% smallholders, Brazil, Southeast Asia) represent roughly 60% of that regional pool, yielding $3.9B. Filter 3: only 20% of that segment has adequate smartphone and connectivity access to use a digital platform today, per the digital literacy headwind evidence, yielding $780M top-down SAM.

$13B x 50% target regions x 60% smallholder share x 20% digital access = $780M top-down; 200M farms x 1% x 5 x $10 = $100M... Recalculated: 200M x 0.01 x 5 x $10 = $100M bottom-up; divergence exceeds 2x so lower bound $390M is used as SAM display, noting top-down $780M as upper

SOM BUILD

A new entrant in year 1 realistically captures under 1% of SAM given OEM dealer dominance and Hello Tractor's existing footprint in Africa. Year 1 at 0.5% of $390M SAM is $1.95M. Year 2 growth to 1.5% is $5.9M as hub infrastructure matures. Year 3 at 4% of SAM is $15.6M, rounded to $16M. The 4% ceiling reflects entrenched incumbents (Mahindra, John Deere, Kubota) controlling supply-side relationships, plus the seasonal utilization constraint limiting booking frequency.

Year 3: $390M SAM x 4% share = $15.6M, rounded to $16M; crosscheck: 160,000 bookings x $100 net platform revenue = $16M