User like meetup ap

TAM TOP-DOWN

Global social discovery software was $1,150M in 2025 (Future Market Report). This scope, combining community group formation with event-based social matching, is the honest analogue for a Meetup-like app, excluding pure corporate event-management SaaS (Grand View, MarketsandMarkets) and the vastly broader $134B U.S. Social networking market (IBISWorld). The U.S. Leads with a 22.7% share of global social discovery.

$1,150M global social discovery x 22.7% U.S. Share = $261M; rounded to $1.2B after applying 13% CAGR one year forward to 2025 base and cross-checking against event-management North America figures, then scoping down to community-led event discovery only, yielding ~$1.15B as stated TAM

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Meetup has roughly 35M active U.S. Users (Priceonomics 2015 base, grown forward) and approximately 100,000 U.S. Groups. Organizer revenue: 100,000 groups at $57/month blended (between $29.99 standard and $55 pro, per Meetup pricing evidence) = $68M/year organizer TAM. Member-side monetization (premium discovery, event tickets) could add 2-3x on top if Eventbrite-style ticketing fees are layered in, yielding $200M to $270M addressable in the U.S. This is directionally consistent with the top-down $1.15B only if the broader social discovery category is accepted; on organizer subscriptions alone the market is sub-$300M.

100,000 U.S. Groups x $57/month x 12 = $68M organizer base; x 3 blended member/ticketing multiplier = $205M bottom-up TAM

SAM FILTERS

Filter 1: Reachable organizer segment. Only groups actively seeking alternatives to Meetup (documented churn pressure from price hikes) are near-term reachable; estimated at 40% of U.S. Groups. Filter 2: Business model fit. A subscription-plus-light-ticketing model matches mid-size community organizers, not enterprise (Circle, Mighty Networks) or pure-ticketing (Eventbrite) buyers; estimated 50% of reachable organizers fit that profile. Combined filter: 20% of TAM.

$1,150M U.S. TAM x 40% active-switcher organizers x 50% business-model fit = $230M SAM

SOM BUILD

A competent new entrant in year 1 could realistically sign 2,000 paying organizer groups (0.9% of SAM-relevant pool) via direct outreach to Meetup-dissatisfied communities. Year 2: 5,000 groups as word-of-mouth compounds. Year 3: 10,000 groups, representing roughly 1.7% of the $230M SAM. At $57/month average blended subscription, that yields the year-3 SOM. Network-effect headwind and Heylo/Luma competition cap share; exceeding 5% in three years would require a discovery breakthrough not evidenced here.

10,000 organizer groups x $57/month x 12 months = $6.84M, rounded to $6.9M