A marketplace where people rent out air mattresses and spare rooms in their homes to travelers

TAM TOP-DOWN

Global lodging spend was roughly $650B in 2008. Peer-to-peer eligible nights (leisure trips where travelers accept a stranger's home over a hotel) represent an estimated 13% of that spend.

$650B lodging x 13% addressable = $87B

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Around 220M households in tourist-relevant cities hold spare-room capacity. If 8% would ever list at an average $60/night for 80 nights a year, host-side supply supports a market of the same order.

220M households x 8% x $60 x 80 nights = $85B

SAM FILTERS

Serviceable market limits to urban OECD cities where payment rails, tourist density, and early-adopter trust exist, roughly a quarter of the global figure.

$87B x 25% urban OECD = $22B

SOM BUILD

A three-year build concentrating liquidity in 10 launch cities, taking a 10% commission on roughly $1.8B of gross bookings.

$1.8B bookings x 10% take rate = $180M