Artificial tree: a scalable engineered system that captures carbon dioxide and harmful air pollutants while releasing oxygen to improve urban air quality.

TAM TOP-DOWN

Artificial trees are a direct air capture technology. The honest top-down TAM is the India DAC market, not the broader industrial air pollution control market, which buys fundamentally different equipment. Grand View Research pegs India DAC at $3.2M in 2024. The larger air pollution control figures ($10.5B or $63.7B) describe scrubbers, filters, and electrostatic precipitators, which serve a different job-to-be-done and a different buyer budget.

India DAC market 2024 = $3.2M (Grand View Research); no narrowing multiplier applied, this is already the correct scope

TAM BOTTOM-UP

CPCB identifies 17 highly polluting industrial categories. National facility count is not found in evidence; Chennai alone has 80,210 MSMEs. Conservatively assuming 50,000 large industrial facilities nationally across the 17 categories (a rough proxy from city-level data). A realistic pilot-stage buyer might pay $30,000 per unit. Applying a 2% willingness-to-buy rate given high cost barriers and weak enforcement yields a demand pool. This estimate is highly speculative given the missing national facility count.

50,000 facilities x 2% adoption x $30,000 per unit = $30M, rounded to $28M at lower confidence

SAM FILTERS

Top-down SAM: Urban municipalities and large corporates with public ESG mandates are the only near-term buyers; estimated at 15% of the $3.2M DAC TAM, given that most DAC activity targets industrial point-source capture rather than urban air quality units. Weak regulatory enforcement (60% violation rate, Trade.gov) and high cost versus India carbon credit rates ($14-$33 per tonne) further compress reachable demand. Bottom-up SAM applies 5% of the $28M bottom-up TAM for the same reasons.

Top-down: $3.2M x 15% = $480K. Bottom-up: $28M x 5% = $1.4M. Conservative bound = $480K

SOM BUILD

A competent new entrant in year one can realistically close 1 to 2 pilot contracts. Over three years, assuming 3 to 5 total deployments at an average $30,000 per unit (low end of $30K-$100K range, reflecting India price sensitivity), revenue reaches roughly $90K-$150K. Taking the midpoint against the conservative $480K SAM implies a 20% SAM capture rate over three years, which is aggressive for a capital-heavy product facing weak enforcement demand but plausible if a single municipal contract anchors the business.

3 units x $32,000 average realized price = $96K over 3 years; ~20% of $480K SAM