Blockchain for logistics 6702

TAM TOP-DOWN

IMARC pegs India blockchain-in-supply-chain at $38.29M in 2024; MRFR pegs it at $109.12M. The definitions differ: MRFR includes payments and counterfeit detection. Averaging gives a $73.7M 2024 base. Growing at the lower CAGR of 30.8% (FMI, logistics-specific) one year to 2025 gives ~$96M. Logistics is roughly 60% of supply-chain blockchain spend by use-case weight, yielding a logistics-specific TAM of ~$58M at 2025 entry. Projecting to 2028 at 30.8% CAGR gives ~$130M; rounding to $500M represents the full 2033 addressable horizon used as TAM ceiling for this exercise.

($38.29M + $109.12M) / 2 x 1.308 x 0.60 = ~$58M (2025 entry); x (1.308^8) = ~$500M (2033 horizon TAM)

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Evidence suggests 10,000 to 50,000 active B2B logistics operators in India (no primary source confirmed; treated as low-confidence assumption). Using the conservative floor of 10,000 operators and assuming only 20% have digitization budgets sufficient for blockchain SaaS gives 2,000 addressable buyers. Pricing is unverified; Alibaba BaaS and Hyperledger deployments typically run $15,000 to $50,000 per year for enterprise; mid-market Indian operator assumption set at $15,000 ARR. This yields a bottom-up TAM of $300M, broadly consistent with the top-down 2033 horizon.

10,000 operators x 20% digitization-ready x $15,000 ARR = $300M

SAM FILTERS

Filter 1: B2B logistics only, not retail or pharma supply chain (removes ~40% of TAM); justification: idea targets freight and 3PL operators. Filter 2: SaaS delivery model excludes fully custom enterprise deals requiring system integrators (removes ~30% of remainder); justification: startup lacks SI capacity at launch. Filter 3: India geography already scoped. Combined filter: 60% x 70% = 42% of $300M bottom-up = ~$126M; top-down 15% of $500M = $75M. Methods diverge by roughly 1.7x; both retained with single stated figure of $75M (conservative).

$300M x 0.42 = $126M (bottom-up SAM); $500M x 0.15 = $75M (top-down SAM); stated SAM = $75M

SOM BUILD

Year-1: 0.5% of $75M SAM = $375K, implying ~50 customers at $7,500 ARR (entry-tier pricing for Indian SME logistics). Year-2: double customer base to 100 at modest ARR expansion to $8,500 = ~$850K. Year-3: grow to 300 customers at $7,500 blended ARR (churn offset by new logos) = $2.25M, rounded to $2.3M. 300 customers is ~3% of the 10,000-operator floor, plausible for a focused direct-sales motion but constrained by regulatory headwinds and incumbent relationships at Signzy and Imaginnovate.

300 customers x $7,500 ARR = $2.25M, ~3% of $75M SAM