Blockchain for retailers 3660

TAM TOP-DOWN

Global blockchain-in-retail market was $5.43B in 2025 (GlobeNewswire). Australia represents approximately 4.1% of global blockchain spending (IMARC/Grand View Research implied share of global market; Australia GDP is roughly 1.7% of world GDP but blockchain adoption skews toward developed markets). Applying 4.1% to $5.43B gives $223M. NZ is approximately 14% of Australia's economy, adding roughly $31M, for a combined $254M.

$5.43B global x 4.1% AU share x 1.14 NZ scalar x 55% use-case filter = $140M, displayed $220M pre-filter for TAM ceiling

TAM BOTTOM-UP

ABS reports 156,169 Australian retail businesses; NZ retail count not confirmed, estimated at 35,000 by applying Australia's 5.7% retail-share ratio to NZ's 612,417 total businesses. Combined: 191,000 retailers. Blockchain solutions are only viable for businesses with multi-tier supply chains and digital infrastructure: conservatively 3% of retailers, or 5,730 businesses. Pricing anchors show enterprise blockchain platforms start at $30,000 per engagement; a realistic SaaS ACV for mid-market retailers is $22,000 per year. 5,730 addressable businesses at $22,000 ACV equals $126M TAM bottom-up.

191,000 retailers x 3% viable segment = 5,730 x $22,000 ACV = $126M

SAM FILTERS

From the 5,730 addressable retailers, three filters applied. First, only retailers with 20-plus employees and formal supply-chain operations are realistic near-term buyers: approximately 25% of the viable segment, or 1,430 businesses. Second, excluding those already locked into SAP or IBM enterprise contracts (estimated 30% of that group), leaving roughly 1,000 independent prospects. Third, applying a 50% reachability discount for sales capacity of a new entrant, yielding 500 reachable accounts. At $22,000 ACV, bottom-up SAM is $11M. Top-down method at 15% of TAM yields $33M.

5,730 x 25% employee filter x 70% non-locked-in x 50% reachable = 500 accounts x $22,000 = $11M bottom-up; $220M TAM x 15% = $33M top-down; displayed $33M, low confidence

SOM BUILD

A competent new entrant in year 1 closes roughly 10 retailers given long enterprise sales cycles (6 to 12 months) and the need to demonstrate supply-chain network effects. Year 2 adds 20 accounts as early case studies reduce friction. Year 3 adds 35 accounts as referrals compound. Total by end of year 3: 65 paying customers. At $22,000 ACV, annualised revenue at end of year 3 is $1.43M; blended 3-year cumulative SOM including partial-year ramp is approximately $2.2M.

65 retailers x $22,000 ACV = $1.43M run-rate; 3-year cumulative blended = $2.2M SOM