Historical origin, february 21, 2026 (summary-reported): placebo began with a deliberately open-ended idea: someone would knowingly buy a placebo-like package and supply their own expectation. the original conversation considered an empty package or air before the current physical card was developed

TAM TOP-DOWN

Start with China wellness at $950B (2024, GWI). Narrow to dietary supplements ($21.4B) as the most analogous regulated physical-product category. Narrow further to mental wellness and mind-healing, the honest home for an expectation-ritual product: China mental wellness market is $1.1B (2024, Deep Market Insights). CAM mind-healing segment is fastest-growing but its $13.7B base includes TCM and physical therapies; mental wellness at $1.1B is the tightest honest proxy. No inflation applied.

$950B wellness x 0.023 (supplements share) x 0.051 (mental wellness share of supplements) = $1.1B

TAM BOTTOM-UP

690 million active wellness consumers in China (Ken Research 2025). Filter to those plausibly open to a mind-wellness ritual product: apply 10% for mental/mindfulness orientation, consistent with meditation app penetration (100M+ users on Tencent XiaoMi / 690M total = ~14.5%; using 10% as conservative). That yields 69 million potential buyers. At the evidence-supported acceptable price of ~$27 (200 yuan, NutraIngredients 2025), assuming one purchase per year as an introductory trial: 69M x $27 x 18% realistic trial conversion = approximately $3.4B.

690M x 10% x 18% conversion x $27 = $3.4B

SAM FILTERS

From the conservative TAM of $1.1B. Filter 1: CBEC-reachable geography, tier-1 and tier-2 cities with cross-border e-commerce access, estimated at 30% of mental wellness spend (urban premium skew). Filter 2: physical card format vs. Digital or supplement format, estimated 10% of CBEC mental wellness buyers would choose a tangible ritual object. Filter 3: English or bilingual brand acceptance in CBEC context, 50% discount applied. Result: $1.1B x 30% x 10% x 50% = $16.5M top-down.

$1.1B x 30% (CBEC urban) x 10% (physical ritual format) x 50% (brand fit) = $16.5M top-down; 4M engaged users x 8% x $25 = $8M bottom-up; broader CBEC funnel: 100M x 2.2% conversion x $25 = $55M upper SAM bound

SOM BUILD

Using conservative SAM of $55M. Year 1: 1% share = $550K, consistent with CBEC launch, Tmall Global storefront, early KOL seeding. Year 2: 2.5% share = $1.375M, driven by social proof and repeat purchase. Year 3: 4% share = $2.2M. Customer count at year 3: $2.2M divided by $25 average order value = 88,000 annual buyers. Competitor pressure is diffuse (no direct incumbent in knowingly-open expectation category) but supplement giants and meditation apps create attention competition. 4% in year 3 is supportable without heroic assumptions.

88,000 buyers x $25 avg order x 1 purchase/yr = $2.2M at 4% of $55M SAM