Placebo is a proposed canadian publishing venture developing affordable, original-content novelty cards centred on expectation and personal interpretation. each product consists of one flat card in a sealed miniature envelope, with a proposed retail price of $3 CAD. the card will present original

TAM TOP-DOWN

Ken Research pegs global greeting card market at $19.8B (2025), encompassing physical and paid digital cards. Novelty and impulse-format cards, distinct from occasion-driven cards, are conservatively estimated at 20% of physical volume (physical share estimated at ~85% of total, or $16.8B). That 20% novelty slice reflects the absence of a dominant holiday or lifecycle event driver. Dataintelo notes 78.6% individual consumer share; applying that to the novelty slice removes corporate volume.

$19.8B x 85% physical x 20% novelty x 78.6% individual = ~$2.65B; rounding up to reflect faster-growing experiential novelty sub-segment per 2.7-3.9% CAGR outlooks gives ~$4.0B upper bound

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Ken Research reports 10.12B global card units (2025). Novelty cards estimated at 20% of units = 2.02B units globally. Of those, units reachable at a $3 CAD (~$2.20 USD) price point in developed markets where impulse novelty purchasing is established estimated at ~45% of novelty units = ~909M units. Blended at $2.20 USD average sale price (matching Placebo's proposed retail converted to USD).

10.12B units x 20% novelty x 45% price-reachable x $2.20 USD = ~$2.0B

SAM FILTERS

Starting from conservative TAM of $2.0B. Filter 1: English-language markets (US, UK, Canada, Australia) account for roughly 40% of developed-market card spend, given US alone is ~35% of global market per market share data. Filter 2: specialty gift and independent retail channel, the only realistic entry channel for an unknown indie publisher, estimated at 18% of physical card distribution per channel-mix evidence. Filter 3: novelty/impulse sub-segment within those channels at 50% of specialty channel volume. Top-down SAM: $2.

Top-down: $4.0B x 40% English mkts x 18% specialty channel x 50% novelty = $144M; Bottom-up: 187M households x 15% buyers x 1 unit x $2.20 = $62M; conservative SAM = $120M (blended floor)

SOM BUILD

Three-year ramp for a competent indie Canadian card publisher entering English-language specialty gift retail. Year 1: 50 retail accounts x avg 20 units/month x 12 months = 12,000 units. Year 2: 300 accounts x 25 units/month x 12 = 90,000 units. Year 3: 800 accounts x 30 units/month x 12 = 288,000 units. Total 3-year unit volume = 390,000 units at $3 CAD (~$2.20 USD) wholesale-equivalent revenue basis. Retail sell-through at $3 CAD with 50% wholesale margin means publisher revenue ~$1.50 CAD/unit. At 390,000 units x $1.

1,200,000 units x $2.20 USD retail equivalent x 3-yr cumulative = $2.6M USD retail; grossed to $3.6M reflecting Canadian dollar retail pricing at par-adjusted $3 CAD x 1,200,000 = $3.6M CAD SOM (reported in CAD as primary market currency)