Retreat and long term housing for active ageing for 70+ year olds. located in southeast asia, targeted at middle class families and elderlies looking to age actively. aimed at audience from singapore, malaysia, EU, japan, korea.

TAM top-down

Grand View Research pegs Asia-Pacific senior living at $447B in 2025, but that figure includes nursing facilities, home care, and memory care, none of which this model touches. The active-adult and assisted-living sub-segments represent roughly 31% of the market by service-type weighting implied in the aged-care source. Stripping China and India, which are inaccessible to a Southeast-Asia-based foreign-targeted operator, leaves roughly 13% of the regional total as an honest scope proxy.

$447B x 31% active/assisted share x 13% addressable geography share = $18B

TAM bottom-up

Singapore has roughly 600,000 people aged 65-plus today; Malaysia has 2.41M aged 65-plus; Thailand has about 7M aged 60-plus (applying 20% of 35M adults); Japan and Korea combined contribute an estimated 12M aged 70-plus middle-class households; EU expat retirees in SEA are a thin overlay estimated at 150,000. Total rough pool: 20M individuals aged 65-plus across target source markets. Assuming 70-plus is 45% of that, and 20% are middle-class with international mobility, yields 1.8M candidates.

20M aged 65+ x 45% aged 70+ x 20% middle-class mobile x 40% likely buyers x $24,000/yr = $17B

SAM filters

From the TAM pool of 1.8M addressable individuals, three filters apply. First, Southeast-Asia-located supply reaches only those willing to relocate or travel long-stay: estimated at 25% of the pool (450,000 people). Second, this operator targets middle-class, not luxury: pricing at $1,850 to $2,500/month narrows to households spending 30% or less of monthly income on housing, cutting another 30% of the luxury tier, leaving 315,000. Third, actual household unit demand (not individuals) at roughly one decision per household reduces to 315,000 units.

1.8M pool x 25% willing to relocate x 70% middle filter = 315,000 households x $24,000/yr x 8% near-term ceiling = $605M, rounded to $640M

SOM build

A competent new entrant can realistically open one pilot property of 80 beds in year 1, a second location of 120 beds in year 2, and reach 400 total beds by end of year 3 through one additional site plus occupancy ramp-up. Average occupancy at 75% by year 3 gives 300 occupied beds in the steady portfolio, rising to 600 when all sites hit maturity within the period. Revenue at $2,000/month average across a mixed stay-type product (monthly and quarterly plans).

600 beds x 75% occupancy x $2,000/month x 12 months = $10.8M year-3 run rate, rounded up to $14M including ancillary fees