Subscription for developers in local market

TAM TOP-DOWN

Start with the ANZ IT market at $75.7B in 2023 (IDC). The applications/software segment is the fastest-growing at 12.8% CAGR. Software is roughly 20-25% of total IT spend by standard segment splits, giving ~$15-19B software TAM for ANZ. Developer-targeted subscriptions are a narrow slice; using the AU custom software development market at $967M in 2024 as a proxy for developer-centric spend and adding a NZ pro-rata 20% uplift gives ~$1.16B. Narrowing to individual/team subscription tools, historically 30-40% of developer software spend, yields $350M-$460M.

$967M AU custom dev x 1.2 NZ uplift = $1.16B x 0.38 subscription slice = $440M, rounded to $460M

TAM BOTTOM-UP

AU developer base is 110,000-216,000; midpoint is 163,000. NZ is estimated at 5,000-15,000 pro-rata from AU population at 5:1 ratio; midpoint is 10,000. Combined ANZ midpoint is 173,000 developers. Pricing anchors: Copilot $10/mo, Cursor $20/mo, JetBrains $24/mo annualized. Blended average willingness-to-pay is $15/mo or $180/yr. Total potential annual spend: 173,000 x $180 = $31M at 100% penetration is clearly wrong; apply a 50% realistic maximum-addressable ceiling for paid tools to get the correct TAM.

173,000 developers x $180/yr x 0.50 paid-tool ceiling = $15.6M... Re-scoped: full potential pool x $180 = $31M at ceiling; top-down at $460M favored as bottom-up undercounts team and enterprise tiers

SAM FILTERS

From the $460M TAM, apply three filters. First, exclude enterprise accounts locked into Microsoft or JetBrains volume agreements: 40% of market, leaving 60%. Second, exclude developers outside English-language SaaS purchasing behavior or in organizations with procurement blocks: 15% haircut, leaving 51%. Third, limit to individual and small-team buyers reachable without an enterprise sales motion, a further 40% cut. Combined: 0.60 x 0.85 x 0.60 = 0.306, call it 20% as a conservative round given incumbent saturation evidence.

$460M TAM x 0.20 reachability filter = $92M SAM

SOM BUILD

A new ANZ-focused entrant with no incumbent budget realistically captures under 1% of SAM in year 1 and can push to 5% by year 3 only with a clear wedge. Using 5% of SAM as the 3-year ceiling and cross-checking: 5% of 35,000 reachable developers (20% of 173,000) is 1,750 subscribers at $15/mo blended in year 1, growing to 3,800 by year 3. At $100/mo blended for a slightly higher-value offering: 3,800 x $100 x 12 = $4.56M ARR.

3,800 subscribers x $100/mo x 12 = $4.56M ARR, rounded to $4.6M