Uber for dogs and cats version 0

TAM TOP-DOWN

Mordor Intelligence sizes the US-inclusive pet services market at $32B in 2026, covering walking, sitting, boarding, daycare, and training but not food or products. North America holds 38.46% of the GVR global figure, consistent with Mordor's absolute US estimate. This idea targets only the non-veterinary, non-grooming, platform-bookable services: walking, sitting, boarding, and daycare. Industry composition analysis assigns roughly 30% of total pet services spend to these four categories, excluding vet care, grooming, and training.

$32B US pet services x 30% platform-bookable categories = $9.6B TAM

TAM BOTTOM-UP

APPA reports 68M dog-owning and 49M cat-owning households; households overlap, so combined unique households are estimated at 90M. Cats use boarding and sitting at far lower rates than dogs, so cat households are discounted to 30% equivalent weight. Weighted household base is approximately 83M. Average annual spend per household using any paid pet service is estimated at $120 based on Rover and Wag pricing anchors ($25 per walk, two uses per month for 20% of households; $50 per boarding night, three nights per year for 15%).

83M weighted households x 20% paid-service users x $600 avg annual spend = $9.96B, rounds to $10B

SAM FILTERS

From the $9.6B TAM, three filters apply. First, urban and suburban density: on-demand same-day dispatch requires walker supply density; roughly 55% of US pet households are in metro areas (Forbes ownership data skews suburban). Second, digital and app adoption: estimated 70% of metro pet owners are smartphone-enabled and open to app booking. Third, platform-model willingness: evidence shows flat or declining platform revenues in 2025 and overall pet ownership down since 2019; conservative 40% of digitally-enabled metro households will actually transact on a new platform versus incumbents.

$9.6B x 55% metro x 70% app-enabled x 40% new-platform willingness = $1.48B, display $1.4B

SOM BUILD

A new entrant in year one realistically captures 0.3% of $1.4B SAM given Rover's installed base, Thrive's supply consolidation, and the regulatory friction documented across MA, NJ, and NY. Year two scales to 1% as network density builds in one or two launch metros. Year three reaches 2% with geographic expansion. The midpoint of a three-year average is roughly 1.1% of SAM. Pricing anchor: $200 average annual revenue per active user (mix of walks at $25 and boarding at $50, platform take at 15%). Active users needed for $29M: 145,000.

$1.4B SAM x 2% year-three share = $28M, display $29M; cross-check: 145,000 users x $200 avg annual platform revenue = $29M