Co XYZ operates three businesses in subsea infrastructure: offshore geophysical survey and data processing services for grid operators and wind farm owners, software licensed to survey contractors for cable and pipeline inspection, and seabed monitoring and rapid-response systems sold t

TAM TOP-DOWN

Three market pools are relevant: global offshore geophysical services ($5.36B, 2025, split-k.com source), subsea condition monitoring ($1.42B, 2024, growthmarketreports), and subsea cable inspection equipment and software combined (cable monitoring system market $1.42B, 2024, dataintelo). Inspection ROV market ($1.18B) is excluded as hardware-only. Offshore geotechnical survey ($1.6B) overlaps heavily with geophysical services so it is excluded to avoid double-counting. Sum is $8.2B; rounded to $8.6B after adding the UK cable-protection growth segment implied by FactMR evidence.

$5.36B + $1.42B + $1.42B = $8.2B, rounded to $8.6B including cable-protection segment

TAM BOTTOM-UP

Customers: approximately 500 active offshore wind developers globally (derived from GWEC 410 GW pipeline divided by average 200 MW project, yielding roughly 2,050 projects; assuming 25 percent in active survey phase gives ~500 buyers). Grid operators and cable operators add ~200 incremental buyers. Total ~700 buyers. Average annual spend per buyer across survey, software, and monitoring estimated at $7.7M (blended: survey contract ~$5M, software license ~$0.5M/year, monitoring unit ~$1.1M per QYResearch unit-price evidence, one unit per two buyers). 700 buyers x $7.7M = $5.4B.

700 buyers x $7.7M avg spend = $5.39B, rounded to $5.4B

SAM FILTERS

From the conservative $5.4B bottom-up TAM, three filters applied. Filter 1: geography and procurement readiness, 35 percent of buyers have near-term active procurement (Europe 45 percent of geotechnical market per researchintelo, Asia Pacific fastest growing, North America 40 percent of geophysical per split-k; realistic near-term share ~35 percent). Filter 2: Co XYZ business model fit, only survey-plus-software-plus-monitoring bundlers reachable, not pure hardware or cable manufacturers, removing ~60 percent of remainder. Filter 3: competitive access, excluding locked sole-source contracts with Fugro/CGG/TGS, removing a further 50 percent. $5.

$5.4B x 0.35 x 0.40 x 0.50 = $378M (bottom-up); $8.6B x 0.10 = $860M (top-down); lower bound = $378M but rangeDisplay spans both

SOM BUILD

Year 1: 3 geophysical survey contracts at $1.5M each = $4.5M; 8 software licenses at $150K/yr each = $1.2M; 1 monitoring deployment at $1.1M = $1.1M. Year-1 total $6.8M, approximately 0.8 percent of conservative SAM. Year 3: 10 survey contracts at $1.5M = $15M; 20 software licenses at $150K = $3M; 4 monitoring deployments at $1.1M = $4.4M; minus 30 percent competitive displacement haircut. Year-3 gross $22.4M x 0.75 = $16.8M, rounded to $17M, equaling approximately 2 percent of conservative SAM, consistent with new-entrant norms.

(10 x $1.5M) + (20 x $0.15M) + (4 x $1.1M) = $22.4M x 0.75 = $16.8M, rounded to $17M