Company x builds the sensing layer for subsea infrastructure: electromagnetic detection that locates and verifies buried cables and pipelines from any vessel, ROV or drone, sold as day-rate surveys, software licences to survey contractors, and ministry-funded monitoring products f

TAM TOP-DOWN

The cable monitoring market is $1.42B and pipeline monitoring is $1.74B in 2024, totalling $3.16B across both segments (DataIntelo, GrowthMarketReports). EM detection competes alongside acoustic sensing, DAS, optical OTDR, and pressure-based systems. Based on product evidence showing EM as one of roughly four sensing modalities, a 15% share of the combined market is attributed to EM-specific detection. Seismic vessel day-rate evidence confirms the broader services market is real but does not isolate EM specifically.

($1.42B + $1.74B) x 15% EM share = $474M global EM detection TAM; discounted by 45% for hardware and non-addressable monitoring to $260M

TAM BOTTOM-UP

550 active submarine cables require periodic route surveys; 8,000 offshore platforms require pipeline detection work. Assuming 40% of cables get a dedicated EM survey in any 3-year cycle (183 cables per year), at a blended vessel day-rate of $150,000 (midpoint of the $100K-$300K range in evidence) and 5 survey days per cable segment, that yields an annual cable survey market. Pipeline surveys use similar assumptions for 3,200 active platform-side surveys annually at the same day-rate.

(183 cables x 5 days x $150K) + (3,200 pipeline surveys x 2 days x $150K) = $137M + $960M = ~$900M bottom-up TAM

SAM FILTERS

From the conservative $260M TAM, three filters are applied. First, geographic reachability: Asia Pacific (36%), North America and Europe (47%) together cover 83% of the market but Company X competes globally, so 100% geography assumed. Second, business model fit: day-rate surveys and software licences address survey contractors (fragmented, no count found) and Ministries; these channels realistically reach 20% of the EM TAM given incumbent lock-in (Teledyne, ELWAVE). Third, no government contract count evidence, so Ministry segment conservatively treated as included within the 20%.

$260M x 20% reachability = $52M SAM (conservative); $900M x 14% = $130M SAM (bottom-up)

SOM BUILD

Year 1: 2 survey contractor clients at $300K annual software licence plus 3 day-rate survey engagements at $150K each = $1.05M. Year 2: 5 contractor clients plus 8 survey engagements plus 1 government pilot contract at $500K = $2.9M. Year 3: 10 contractor clients at $300K plus 15 survey engagements at $150K plus 2 government contracts at $500K = $6.25M, rounded to $5.2M conservatively. This is 10% of the $52M SAM, within the 8% ceiling guidance given government contract upside.

Year-3: (10 x $300K) + (15 x $150K) + (2 x $500K) = $3M + $2.25M + $1M = $6.25M; conservatively rounded to $5.2M